2025 Presidential Election in Cameroon: A Statistical Analysis of Contested Results
On November 6, 2025, Paul Biya was sworn in after the Constitutional Council declared him the winner of the presidential election with *53.66%* of the vote. However, this announcement triggered widespread, sometimes violent, protests across the country and raised massive doubts about the legitimacy of the poll. Issa Tchiroma, credited with second place according to official figures (35%), still disputes the proclamation of Paul Biya’s victory.
To shed light on the election results, we focused on the performances of Paul Biya and Issa Tchiroma. We analyzed several documents: Constitutional Council Decision No. 54/CC/SRCER of October 27, 2025, proclaiming the results of the October 12, 2025, presidential election; publications from Elecam on its website (portail.elecam.cm); the general report on the conduct of the October 7, 2018, presidential election; and minutes from departmental vote counting commissions circulated via open sources.
What are the findings?
### Participation: An Ambiguous Increase
The Constitutional Council, in its decision of October 27, 2025, announced 8,082,692 registered voters and 4,668,446 voters, a *turnout rate of 57.76%. By comparison, the 2018 presidential election registered 3,590,681 voters out of 6,667,754 registered, a turnout of 53.9%. Participation thus increased by 3.86 points, and the number of registered voters significantly progressed compared to 2018. However, for the 2025 election, Elecam published a figure of 7,845,622 registered voters, a discrepancy of **237,070 voters* with the Constitutional Council’s decision. This difference calls into question the reliability of the official figures.
### Who Wins Where?
* In the *20 departments with the highest number of registered voters* (5,513,984 registered, 2,980,406 voters), which account for 68% of the electorate and 63% of voters, *Issa Tchiroma wins in 12 departments. He garnered 998,435 votes there, representing **33%* of Valid Votes Cast (VVC), against 719,689 votes (*24%*) for Paul Biya.
* In the *38 other departments, as well as the diaspora (2,568,708 registered, 1,688,040 voters), Paul Biya totaled 1,249,708 VVC (74%), against 281,836 VVC (17%*) for Issa Tchiroma.
* In the departments won by Paul Biya, his average share of VVC reached *70.61%*, versus only 18.63% for Tchiroma.
* In those won by Tchiroma, he averaged *56.52%* of the VVC, against 28.94% for Biya.
* Issa Tchiroma wins more than 50% of the vote in 7 departments and in the diaspora: Wouri (74.4%), Vina (58.8%), Mifi (79%), Mayo Louti (54.4%), Bamboutos (57%), Djerem (50.8%), Haut Nkam (71%), and Diaspora (58%). Issa Tchiroma achieved scores above 70% in the Wouri (74%), Mifi (79%), and Haut-Nkam (72%) departments.
* Paul Biya accumulated *47% of his total votes* (1,175,145 out of 2,474,188 VVC) in the Centre, South, and East regions, while Issa Tchiroma only registered 291,571 VVC (18.36%) there.
### Extreme Scores and Concentration of Votes for Paul Biya
* Several departments show *exceptionally high VVC percentages* in favor of Paul Biya: Ndian (99%), Dja-et-Lobo (98%), Nyong-et-Mfoumou (97%), Ngo-Ketunjia (93%), Manyu (93%), Mezam (92%), Mvila (92%), Lékié (91%). In these nine departments, the average turnout rate reached *83%*: out of 705,405 voters, Paul Biya garnered 655,647 votes (93%), versus only 25,500 votes (4%) for Issa Tchiroma.
* In *24 departments* won by Paul Biya, the turnout rate exceeded 70% (77% on average): out of 1,472,236 voters, Paul Biya obtained 87.08% of the VVC (1,282,074 votes), against 7.59% for Tchiroma (111,795 votes).
* Paul Biya’s performance in the *Anglophone regions, despite being marked by violence and secessionist demands, is striking: he garnered 327,792 votes there against 19,400 for Issa Tchiroma, with extreme scores like in Ndian (99%), Mezam (91.7%), Manyu (91.3%), and Ngo-Ketunjia (93.5%). In comparison, during the 2018 presidential election, the abstention rate in these regions oscillated between 85% and 99%. All things being equal, one can legitimately question the factors explaining such a change. These results, combined with abnormally high turnout rates, appear **statistically improbable without irregularities.*
### Anomalies and Signs of Manipulation
Several elements from open sources challenge the sincerity of the poll:
* *Discrepancy of 237,070 registered voters* between the Elecam and Constitutional Council figures.
* *Flagrant case in the Nyong-et-Kellé department: A protocol of proceedings (PV) circulated online reports 34,524 VVC and 16,058 votes for Paul Biya (46.51% of VVC), while the Constitutional Council’s decision attributes him **38,559 votes* (67% of VVC) in the same department, an addition of *22,501 votes*. During the 2018 presidential election, this department was won by Cabral Libii with over 61% of the vote.
* *In Mfoundi, the Constitutional Council indicates 771,503 registered and 393,708 voters, while circulating PVs mention 475,645 registered and 237,910 voters. That is a difference of 295,858 registered and 155,798 voters. The PVs credit Issa Tchiroma with 135,207 votes (57.42%) and Paul Biya with 72,727 votes (30.88%). The Constitutional Council attributes 170,874 VVC (43%) to Issa Tchiroma against 179,394 votes (46%) to Paul Biya. **The finding: the Constitutional Council artificially increased Paul Biya’s votes by 106,667* and Tchiroma’s by 35,640.
* *In Bénoué, the Constitutional Council indicates 423,422 registered and 198,943 voters, with 96,820 VVC (49%) for Issa Tchiroma and 66,362 VVC (33.4%) for Paul Biya. The PVs, meanwhile, mention 493,198 registered and 218,731 voters, with 114,609 VVC (53.61%) for Tchiroma and 70,003 VVC (32.75%) for Biya. A **reduction of approximately 70,000 registered and 19,788 voters* is observed, resulting in a decrease of 17,789 votes for Tchiroma and 3,683 for Biya. This targeted reduction appears aimed at diminishing Tchiroma’s margin in departments where he is popular.
* A constellation of *31 departments, mainly in the Centre, South, East, North-West, South-West, and Far North (Mayo-Sava) regions, exhibits very high turnout rates and VVC shares over 60% in favor of Paul Biya, suggesting an **artificial inflation of results*. In these areas, Paul Biya totaled 1,455,512 votes (60% of VVC), versus 163,742 votes for Issa Tchiroma.
The long delay between the closing of the poll and the publication of the final results facilitated the circulation of alternative protocols of proceedings and the development of divergent consolidated tables. Open sources indicate that some local PVs were modified and do not faithfully reflect the votes. This situation was likely exploited to impose an “official” version of the results.
The official figures for the October 12, 2025, presidential election show both rising participation and extreme territorial disparities between candidates. Where Issa Tchiroma wins, his margins are solid; where Paul Biya wins, his scores reach statistically improbable levels. Between discrepancies in voter registration, contradictory protocols of proceedings, and suspicious variations in turnout, the statistical analysis argues for an *independent and in-depth verification* of the electoral operations to guarantee the sincerity of the poll.
