Guinea-Bissau Is Not an Isolated Crisis. It Is a Symptom of a Rotting Regional Order
By Madi Jobarteh
The events in Guinea-Bissau are alarming, but they are far from surprising. They follow a familiar and dangerous pattern in West Africa, where leaders manipulate constitutions, capture institutions, flout processes, and misuse the police and military to cling to power.
Former President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, already guilty of failing to hold elections on time, has now crossed the line into outright treason. Knowing that opposition candidate Fernando Dias had won nearly 60% of the vote in the first round, Embaló and his military allies moved to halt the electoral process.
On the eve of the official results, the Chief of Staff and a clique of rogue soldiers staged a coup to block the announcement and illegally maintain Embaló in power. This is not a political dispute. It is a criminal assault on the will of the people and a direct violation of Guinea-Bissau’s constitution. Such impunity must not stand.
But Bissau is simply the latest chapter in a long regional tragedy. Across West Africa, leaders treat constitutions as obstacles to be rewritten or ignored. Ouattara forced a fourth term in Côte d’Ivoire. Macky Sall had flirted with one in Senegal, but only stopped because of the people’s resistance. Alpha Condé bulldozed his way into a third term, triggering a coup in Guinea. Yaya Jammeh refused to concede defeat and nearly plunged the country into war. Faure Gnassingbé restructured Togo’s constitution to extend his family dynasty. Benin’s recent amendment, stretching Talon’s term from five to seven years, follows the same logic.
In all these cases and many more, the message is clear: power is personal property, and term limits are negotiable. This is not just bad governance; it is systematic human rights abuse. The real danger in West Africa is not just coups or strongmen. It is the slow death of constitutionalism. It is the normalization of illegality.
To reverse this decline, two urgent steps are needed. First, the coup in Guinea-Bissau must be overturned immediately, and Fernando Dias must be allowed to take office. Second, citizens across West Africa must reject impunity and demand strict adherence to constitutional rule.
West Africa is not short of talent or resources. It is short of honest leadership. Until leaders respect the law, the region will remain trapped in cycles of instability and self-inflicted crisis.
The events in Bissau are a warning. The question is whether West Africa will finally confront this decay or continue drifting toward the abyss
